The Arctic is changing daily.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought cooperation across the circumpolar north to a standstill. Moscow is modernising its military forces, threatening to abandon a regional order it once helped to build. China is constructing an icebreaker fleet and seeks access to polar shipping routes. NATO states have scrambled for a collective response, but their cohesion is strained by threats from a new U.S. administration to annex Greenland. A new iron curtain is descending between the western and eastern halves of the Arctic, to the immense detriment of Indigenous communities.
All the while, the climate crisis continues to devastate Arctic ecosystems. Beneath the receding ice cap, economic opportunity beckons. India, the United Arab Emirates, and other ambitious outsiders are pushing northwards in search of spoils, status, and shipping routes — and, in dire need of new partners, Russia has become increasingly receptive to their advances.
Many newcomers are fixated on the region’s abundant oil and gas reserves. Yet other Arctic resources may prove even more consequential for the planet’s future. In the bowels of Greenland, rare earth elements and critical minerals remain largely untapped. On Arctic seabeds, polymetallic nodules could at some point be targeted for extraction. The Arctic’s potential for renewable energy production — including wind, hydroelectric power, biomass, and geothermal energy — is enormous. Facing desertification and collapsing agricultural systems, fast-growing nations are eyeing Arctic fisheries, freshwater reserves, and even the agricultural prospects of thawing permafrost. And with the Arctic serving as a backbone of global satellite operations, competition over the infrastructure underpinning the digital economy is slowly engulfing the Far North.
Amid such hectic headlines, the Arctic appears destined for conflict.
But can the headlines be trusted?
66° North is a newsletter project by Lukas Wahden, a Ph.D. candidate in International Relations at the Center for International Studies at Sciences Po Paris and an Associate Fellow at the Russia Program at George Washington University. The newsletter aims to contextualise the Arctic news cycle, offering commentary on emerging debates about the political future of the circumpolar north. Drawing on materials in English, Russian, and Chinese, 66° North considers divergent — and occasionally unconventional — perspectives on the region. It provides updates on recent developments, adding analysis wherever needed.
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And feel free to get in touch: lukas.wahden@sciencespo.fr
Photo: The Lumina mine on the Kangerlussuaq fjord in Greenland. The pile in the middle of the photo is anorthosite, a metal required - inter alia - in the study of how to build permanent structures on the moon. (Source: ESA / The Polar Journal)
