The Arctic is changing with every day.
The war in Ukraine has brought cooperation in the region to a standstill. Russia is modernising its northern military forces, threatening to abandon an Arctic order it once helped to build. China is constructing an icebreaker fleet, seeking access to polar shipping routes. NATO states have scrambled for a collective response, but allied cohesion is strained by disputes over the future of Greenland. Once again, the Arctic region is fracturing, to the detriment of Indigenous communities.
All the while, the climate crisis continues to devastate the Arctic. Beneath the receding ice cap and thawing permafrost, economic opportunity is said to beckon. Ambitious outsiders are pushing northwards in search of spoils and status. In dire need of new partners, Russia has become more receptive to their advances.
Many newcomers are fixated on the region’s abundant oil and gas reserves. Yet other Arctic resources may prove even more consequential for the planet’s future. In the bowels of Arctic territories, rare earth and minerals deposits remain largely untapped. On the Arctic seabed, polymetallic nodules could at some point be targeted for extraction. The Arctic’s potential for renewable energy production — including wind, hydroelectric power, biomass, and geothermal energy — is enormous. Facing desertification and collapsing agricultural systems, fast-growing nations are eyeing Arctic fisheries, freshwater reserves, and even the agricultural prospects of thawing permafrost. And with Arctic ground stations serving as a backbone of global satellite operations, competition over the infrastructure underpinning the digital economy is slowly engulfing the region.
Amid such hectic headlines, the Arctic appears destined for conflict. But can the headlines be trusted?
66° North is a newsletter project by Lukas Wahden, Ph.D. candidate in International Relations at the Center for International Studies at Sciences Po Paris and an Associate Fellow at the Russia Program at George Washington University. The newsletter aims to contextualise the Arctic news cycle, offering commentary on emerging debates about the political future of the circumpolar north. Drawing on materials in English, Russian, and Chinese, 66° North considers divergent — and occasionally unconventional — perspectives on the region. It provides updates on recent developments, adding analysis wherever needed.
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And feel free to get in touch: lukas.wahden@sciencespo.fr
Photo: The Lumina mine on the Kangerlussuaq fjord in Greenland. The pile in the middle of the photo is anorthosite, a metal required - inter alia - in the study of how to build permanent structures on the moon. (Source: ESA / The Polar Journal)
